Definicja judgmental techniques
Forecasting techniques fall into one of three categories: those that rely on past sales data (time series models); those built on a relationship between past sales and some other variable(s) (causal models); and those that rely on the subjective assessment of a person or group of people (judgmental techniques).
Some judgmental or subjective assessment is usually involved in all types of forecasts. For example, decision-makers may create their baseline forecast using a classical time series model, but then adjust this forecast based on their assessments of the likely impact that expected changes in competitors' pricing and promotional activities will have on future sales.
The strength of judgmental techniques is that they can capitalize on the experience and savvy of people who understand not only what is currently happening in the marketplace but also what is likely to occur.
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